Why Do Malls Die? A Survival, Density, and Spatial Competition Framework for Urban Retail Ecosystems

I come from the northeast (Silchar and Agartala), and we were introduced to the concept of malls rather recently. It was only in 2012 that the Goldighi Mall opened its doors in Silchar after a long construction time, followed by the ML Plaza in Agartala in 2013. Interestingly, both had BigBazar as their opening partners and for a long time, the mall was colloquially known as BigBazar. These malls instantly became the heart of their respective towns, attracting massive footfall in the initial days and, to some extent, becoming the envy of local store owners. It is worth noting that these were malls in the true sense, built over a large area, hosting multiple brand outlets (albeit not so high-end), a gaming plaza, a food court, and a cinema complex. The sunshine days for these establishments started to wane about half a decade into their operations. Things were already slowing down, and then the pandemic became the last nail in the coffin. Although neither of them has stopped operations today, their footfall is a shadow of what it was. What were once bustling centres of commerce have almost been abandoned. I observed a similar cycle in Bengaluru and Ahmedabad, and they were much more pronounced. Unlike towns in the northeast, Bengaluru and Ahmedabad are metropolises with malls sprouting on every other corner and every other day. But these new malls stand in contrast to older malls that have shut their doors. Seeing this, a question came to my mind: Why do malls die? What are the most important factors? What is the optimal density of malls for a given population? Establishing and running a mall requires significant investment, and many families' livelihoods depend on it. Hence, this question becomes significant. I have started my investigation, and I hope to have an answer soon. If anyone is interested in contributing to this work, you're welcome to reach out to me.